Out On A Limb

Ok, so it’s June, the election is in 5 months-ish and therefore, it’s time for me to make my prediction. On one hand, we’ve had 8 years of Republican leadership which makes it seem like maybe the country is ready for a change. On the other hand, you’ve got a Democratic candidate who is young and energetic which is attractive to the youth vote (do the youth vote? no but whatever). And on your mutant third hand (the one with 6 fingers and 7 thumbs), you’ve got Ralph Nader. Ok, he doesn’t count but still, he’s funny like a mutant third hand with 6 fingers and 7 thumbs.

So who’s it gonna be? Here’s my 5 minute guess pulled out of my ass masquerading as analysis. People who think Obama might win don’t understand the South and they certainly don’t understand the Second Amendment. Here’s the latest Harris poll on 2A where adults were asked whether said amendment provided an individual right to bear arms and 2 out of every 3 said yes. Support for stricter gun controls is 49%, down from 69% ten years ago. Without the idea that 2A is just as important as 1A, I don’t see how Obama can win many states in the South. In fact, current polls show exactly that. Note that several states that are tossups (NM, CO, NV) are also Western states where anti-gun candidates typically have problems.

So my prediction? McCain wins a close one (assuming the whole age thing doesn’t seriously hurt him, remember Clinton came from a huge distance back to win in ’92 based on the economy and his younger age, hmmm sounds like deja vu all over again). Remember, you heard it here first.

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